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The Future of NBA Expansion: What Cities Could Get New Teams Next?

As I watched the Crossovers secure their third victory with that decisive 25-12, 25-23, 20-25, 25-22 performance against the High Speed Hitters at Smart Araneta Coliseum last Tuesday, I couldn't help but think about the global appetite for professional sports franchises. Having covered basketball expansion talks for over a decade, I've noticed how successful teams create ripples far beyond their home markets. The NBA's current 30-team structure feels increasingly cramped for a league with genuine global ambitions, and Commissioner Adam Silver himself has acknowledged expansion as inevitable within the next five years.

The conversation around NBA expansion has shifted dramatically in recent years. When I first started tracking these discussions back in 2015, the league was still focused primarily on stabilizing existing markets. Now, with media rights deals exploding and international interest at an all-time high, the financial incentives for expansion have become too significant to ignore. The league's last expansion came in 2004 with the Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets), meaning we're approaching two decades without new blood in the league. That's an eternity in sports business terms, especially when you consider the NBA's revenue has grown from approximately $3.1 billion to over $10 billion during that same period.

Seattle absolutely deserves to be at the front of the line for the next expansion team. Having visited KeyArena during the SuperSonics' final seasons and witnessed the city's basketball passion firsthand, I'm convinced it's the strongest candidate. The city has approved a $900 million renovation of Climate Pledge Arena, and there's already corporate support lined up. Las Vegas represents another obvious choice - the success of the Golden Knights in the NHL and the Raiders' relocation to Vegas demonstrates the market's capacity for major professional sports. I've attended NBA summer leagues there where the energy was palpable, with attendance records consistently broken. The league already has deep ties to the city through summer league operations and the WNBA's Aces franchise.

What often gets overlooked in these discussions are the international possibilities. Mexico City has been hosting regular-season games since 1997 and has demonstrated strong fan engagement metrics. During my analysis of international markets, Mexico City stood out with its population of over 21 million and growing middle class. The logistics would be challenging - altitude and travel considerations primarily - but the potential to tap into the Latin American market could justify those hurdles. Some executives I've spoken with estimate a Mexico City franchise could add 5-7 million new Latin American viewers to the NBA's media footprint.

Then there's the dark horse candidate that I've grown increasingly fond of - Vancouver. Their previous NBA stint with the Grizzlies was poorly timed and executed, but the market has transformed dramatically since 2001. The metropolitan population has grown by over 400,000 people, and corporate support has strengthened considerably. Having visited several times in recent years, I've been struck by how the basketball culture has quietly developed through grassroots programs and the success of the Toronto Raptors as Canada's team.

The financials make expansion increasingly logical. Current franchise valuations would suggest expansion fees in the $2.5-3 billion range per team, which would be distributed among existing owners as pure profit. That's an incredible incentive when you consider that the average franchise was worth approximately $300 million just fifteen years ago. The players' association would likely support expansion too, as it would create 30 new roster spots and increase the salary cap through additional revenue streams.

Looking at the broader landscape, I believe we'll see two new teams by 2028, with Seattle and Las Vegas as the frontrunners. The league tends to expand in even numbers to maintain scheduling balance, and these two markets offer the perfect combination of ready-made arenas, corporate support, and demonstrated fan interest. What Tuesday's Crossovers game reminded me is that basketball hunger exists in markets beyond the traditional NBA cities, and the league would be wise to feed that appetite while the iron is hot. The expansion process will undoubtedly reshape the league's geographic and financial landscape in ways we're only beginning to understand.